What's more, the article agrees with something I wrote a lot about before, mainly how this great investor achieves his (usually correct) mountain-top perspective:
Ken Heebner has a bottom-up driven investment process, but takes big macro bets as a result of his bottom-up analysis.Despite recent bad returns, I continue to think that this is a valid approach to investing (as well as all areas of knowledge).
Coming to a macro viewpoint in investing is after all really no different than coming to the same in engineering or politics or medicine. If reached after applying logic to an exhaustive look at all the relevant facts, the conclusion reached is actionable.
One can of course be wrong, especially in the short term, as new circumstances arise, the relevancy of data used change, or whatever, but the only way to rise above the error is to apply the same method: applying logic to the new relevant data and reaching a conclusion based on it.